Saturday, August 16, 2014


It’s worth waiting for the second cookie

Here is a simple puzzle. Do not try to solve it but listen to your intuition. A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs one dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? The answer that comes to mind is 10 cents. Intuitive, appealing, and wrong. The correct answer is 5 cents. Many thousands of university students have answered this puzzle and the results are surprising. More than 50% of students at Harvard, MIT, and Princeton gave the intuitive wrong answer! And at less selective universities the wrong answer was in excess of 80%. Many place too much faith in their intuitions and avoid cognitive effort

Now let’s move from university students to four-year-olds. In one of the most famous experiments in the history of psychology, Walter Mischel and his students gave these children a choice between one cookie which they could have at any time or two cookies for which they had to wait 15 minutes. They were to remain alone in a room facing a desk with only two objects: a single cookie and a bell that the child could ring at any time to call in the experimenter and receive the one cookie. The children’s behavior observed through a one way mirror had the audience roaring with laughter. About half the children managed waiting for 15 minutes and picked up two cookies. Ten or fifteen years later a large gap had opened up between those who had resisted temptation and those who had not. The resisters were better at cognitive tasks, less likely to take drugs and scored higher on tests of intelligence.

Genes, parenting or other influences could possible explain the differential cognitive effort in these students and children.  Both are examples of the better outcomes from delayed gratification, avoiding impulsive decisions. A college freshman’s choice of more difficult courses (science, technology, engineering or math) could land a better job after graduation. A more secure retirement results from the discipline of savings taken out of every pay check
Adapted from Thinking, Fast and Slow a 2011 book by Nobel Memorial Prize winner in Economics Daniel Kahneman

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